But the polls of the Sun Belt battlegrounds, conducted by Langer Research Associates, show Biden slightly ahead of Trump among registered voters surveyed in both states: 49-47 percent in Arizona and 48-47 percent in Florida, advantages that sit within the surveys’ margins or error.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of Arizona surveys conducted from Sept. 4-20, Biden remains 4.1 percentage points ahead of Trump in general election polling. The RealClearPolitics average of Florida polling, which includes surveys from Aug. 28-Sept. 20, shows Biden ahead of Trump by 1 percentage point.
Trump won Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes by 4.1 percentage points in 2016. BiIll Clinton, who won Arizona in 1996, was the most recent Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state.
Trump also won Florida in 2016, securing the 29 Electoral College votes from the nation’s largest swing state by 1.3 percentage points in 2016. Florida has been carried by the eventual winner of each of the last six presidential elections.
The Post-ABC polls were conducted Sept. 15-20 — surveying 765 Florida registered voters, including 613 likely voters; and 701 Arizona registered voters, including 579 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points among registered and likely voters in Arizona, as well as among likely voters in Florida. The error margin is 4 points among Florida registered voters.